- Don Johnson Gambler Strategy
- Don Johnson Blackjack Net Worth
- Don Johnson Blackjack Documentary
- Don Johnson Blackjack Documentary
- Don Johnson Blackjack Strategy
- Don Johnson Blackjack Player
21 (Bloomberg) - Las Vegas high roller Don Johnson wins millions playing blackjack. He doesn't lie, cheat or steal. He just knows how to play the game.
| Born | Donald Johnson 1962 (age 58–59) |
|---|---|
| Occupation | Corporate executive Blackjack player |
Don Johnson (born 1962) is a professional gambler, blackjack player, and former corporate executive, who beat Atlantic City casinos for over $15 million during a six-month period in 2011.[1][2]
Gambling[edit]
- Don Johnson — no relation to the Miami Vice actor from the 80's – is the CEO at a Wyoming company that makes online horse race betting software. He took $6 million in one night from the Atlantic City Tropicana casino. Not long before, he hit Caesars for $4 million and the Borgata for $5 million. And he did it all playing blackjack.
- 'How Don Johnson Beat Blackjack Without Card Counting' by Eliot Jacobson, Ph.D. Don Johnson is arguably one of the most famous names in modern advantage play, with his triumphant slaughter of three Atlantic City casinos in late 2011 into early 2012.
At age 30, Johnson was hired to manage Philadelphia Park, a racetrack that evolved into the Parx Casino. After managing that and other racetracks, he served as a state regulator in Oregon, Idaho, Texas, and Wyoming. In the early 2000s, he founded Heritage Development, a Wyoming-based company that uses computer-assisted wagering programs for horse racing.[3]
During the financial crisis of 2008, casinos became desperate to entice high rollers. In 2010, Johnson was made offers to play at the highest stakes. He negotiated several changes to standard casino blackjack in order to gain a mathematical edge.[4] These changes included dealers being forced to stay on soft 17, a 20% rebate where casino would refund 20% of his losses (20 cents to every dollar) for losses exceeding $500,000, six decks, re-split aces, and others.[5]
During a 12-hour marathon at the Tropicana, Johnson recalls three consecutive hands where he won $1.2 million, including one hand where he profited $800,000. Johnson bet $100,000 and was dealt two eights, which he split. Surprisingly, another two eights came, and he split again, wagering a total of $400,000. He was then dealt a three, a two, another three, and another two on the four hands, allowing him to double down on each hand. He was now wagering a total of $800,000. The dealer busted and Johnson ended up winning $800,000 in profit.[3]
Under these conditions Johnson was able to beat Tropicana out of nearly $6 million, Borgata out of $5 million, and Caesars out of $4 million. His total profits neared $15.1 million and seriously hurt casino profits. Though not banned from Tropicana and Borgata, the two casinos stopped Johnson from playing under those conditions and limits, while Caesars effectively banned him from playing.[3]
References[edit]
- ^Donald Wittkowski (May 23, 2011). 'Meet the blackjack player who beat the Trop for $6 million, Borgata for $5 million and Caesars for $4 million'. Press of Atlantic City.
- ^Alan Farnham and Susanna Kim (March 21, 2012). 'Blackjack Player Who Won $15 Million From 3 Casinos Reveals How'. ABC News. Retrieved March 4, 2014.
- ^ abcBowden, Mark (February 27, 2012). 'The Man Who Broke Atlantic City'. The Atlantic.
- ^'This Man Won $15M at Blackjack, How Did He Do It?'. Bloomberg. January 21, 2014.
- ^'Don Johnson #2: How He Beat Blackjack'. AP Heat. March 8, 2013.
Thread Rating:
Atlantic City and he attributed his success to negotiating favorable terms with those
casinos, terms that he believes gave him a player's edge. He faults the casinos for
accepting his terms without doing the math.
For the game itself he negotiated the dealer standing on a soft 17, a maximum bet of $25,000
to $100,000, no restrictions on doubling down, and resplitting for up to four hands. Best of
all, he negotiated a 20% rebate on any loss he incurred in a single day for a loss of
$500,000 or more.
Apart from the effect of the rebate, he calculated that the game had a house edge of 0.253%.
Casino management probably thought that the house still had the advantage and would merely
be giving up a percentage of their profit. Proper analysis would have shown that this rebate
would shift the odds in Don's favor.
The house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet, For an
average win or loss of one betting unit it can be converted to the probability of winning by
p = (1 - He)/2. We will need this for what follows.
For an He of 0.00253, p = 0.498735 and the probability of losing is q = 0.501265. We shall
use this to calculate Don's expected winnings taking into account the loss rebate.
At what point should he have decided to quit for the day? A loss of $500,000 would be a good
quitting point because playing further would involve the risk either of increasing the loss
or decreasing it and losing the rebate.
The optimal quitting point for a win can be calculated using the gambler's ruin formula for
an unfair game. For a house advantage of 0.00253 p = 0.49873, q = 0.501265 and
r = q/p = 1.00508291.
The probability of winning n units before losing 5 units is
w = (1 - r^5)/(1 - r^(n + 5)).
The player is betting on winning n units with probability w against losing 4 units, taking
into account the rebate, with a probability 1 - w and the player's expectation is
nw - 4(1- w)
This has a maximum of 0.57093 betting units at n = 15 so the player should
stop if he reaches a win of 1,500,000. and his expected average return per day is $57,093.
Teliot has done a similar calculation using simulation and has gotten comparable, though not
identical results.
The strategy works because the house edge in properly played blackjack is small and r is
very close to 1. At r = 1.1 the strategy is unprofitable for all stopping points. This
corresponds to a house advantage of 4.76%. It follows that this strategy is useful only for
blackjack and baccarat and that the house may safely offer this rebate for slots or roulette
without fear of being taken advantage of.
Calculations were done using Derive 6. Maxima were found using calculus.
He also gave us this
A television actor: not the same person.
Teliot has done a similar calculation using simulation and has gotten comparable, though not
identical results.
http://apheat.net/2013/07/02/the-loss-rebate-theorem/
Here are the results of this theorem, when applied to Don Johnson with a $100,000 wager and 20% rebate:
Here is the full theorem:
In my book, he manipulated casino managers to give him an edge on the game. That makes him a cheater, not an AP. Same goes for Ivey.
Manipulate? Sure, if you accept the definition of 'to use or change (numbers, information, etc.) in a skillful way or for a particular purpose'. But that's a far cry from 'cheating'!?!?
People in all industry's negotiate deals every day, some are to their advantage and other that are not. This is no different, in both cases the individuals who negotiated and agreed to terms with Johnson and then with Ivey just made bad deals.
Here are the results of this theorem, when applied to Don Johnson with a $100,000 wager and 20% rebate:
The result of your simulation is that the loss exit point should be $500,000. the win exit point should be $1,600,000, and the expected win is $61,876.
The result of my calculation, which does not take into account the standard deviation of the game, is that the loss exit point should be $500,000, the win exit point should be $1,500,000 and that the expected win is $57,093. This is in pretty good agreement with your simulation but not with your calculation.
I think the idea of using a formula is a good one. I was able to find the optimal quitting point for a gain merely by differentiating the expression for the player's expectation, setting to zero, and solving. Derive and other computer algebra systems can do such things quickly and accurately. Simulation takes time and the error is not always easy to estimate.
In my book, he manipulated casino managers to give him an edge on the game. That makes him a cheater, not an AP. Same goes for Ivey.
A cheater?? He negitoiated a deal, caino accepted it, how is that cheating? Same with Ivey, casio didn't mind turning the cards, after all he was losing, is it only okay to do things while the player is losing and not while they are winning? Ever exprienced dealer trying to upset players, either through fast dealing, section spinning, they don't always offer a fair game despite the HE, you reall do sound jealous.The result of your simulation is that the loss exit point should be $250,000. the win exit point should be $1,600,000, and the expected win is $61,876.
Don Johnson Gambler Strategy
False. See this post:Don Johnson Blackjack Net Worth
http://apheat.net/2013/05/03/don-johnson-3-could-he-have-won-more/
Don Johnson Blackjack Documentary
My simulation gave a quit loss of 2,750,000 and a quit win of 2,200,000 and an average win of $125,209.
Don Johnson Blackjack Documentary
The result of my calculation, which does not take into account the standard deviation of the game, is that the loss exit point should be $250,000, the win exit point should be $1,500,000 and that the expected win is $57,093. This is in pretty good agreement with your simulation but not with your calculation.
Don Johnson Blackjack Strategy
Your method gives incorrect results. You misquote my results. The standard deviation is everything. You are using the wrong house edge.
- Don Johnson Gambler Strategy
- Don Johnson Blackjack Net Worth
- Don Johnson Blackjack Documentary
- Don Johnson Blackjack Documentary
- Don Johnson Blackjack Strategy
- Don Johnson Blackjack Player
21 (Bloomberg) - Las Vegas high roller Don Johnson wins millions playing blackjack. He doesn't lie, cheat or steal. He just knows how to play the game.
| Born | Donald Johnson 1962 (age 58–59) |
|---|---|
| Occupation | Corporate executive Blackjack player |
Don Johnson (born 1962) is a professional gambler, blackjack player, and former corporate executive, who beat Atlantic City casinos for over $15 million during a six-month period in 2011.[1][2]
Gambling[edit]
- Don Johnson — no relation to the Miami Vice actor from the 80's – is the CEO at a Wyoming company that makes online horse race betting software. He took $6 million in one night from the Atlantic City Tropicana casino. Not long before, he hit Caesars for $4 million and the Borgata for $5 million. And he did it all playing blackjack.
- 'How Don Johnson Beat Blackjack Without Card Counting' by Eliot Jacobson, Ph.D. Don Johnson is arguably one of the most famous names in modern advantage play, with his triumphant slaughter of three Atlantic City casinos in late 2011 into early 2012.
At age 30, Johnson was hired to manage Philadelphia Park, a racetrack that evolved into the Parx Casino. After managing that and other racetracks, he served as a state regulator in Oregon, Idaho, Texas, and Wyoming. In the early 2000s, he founded Heritage Development, a Wyoming-based company that uses computer-assisted wagering programs for horse racing.[3]
During the financial crisis of 2008, casinos became desperate to entice high rollers. In 2010, Johnson was made offers to play at the highest stakes. He negotiated several changes to standard casino blackjack in order to gain a mathematical edge.[4] These changes included dealers being forced to stay on soft 17, a 20% rebate where casino would refund 20% of his losses (20 cents to every dollar) for losses exceeding $500,000, six decks, re-split aces, and others.[5]
During a 12-hour marathon at the Tropicana, Johnson recalls three consecutive hands where he won $1.2 million, including one hand where he profited $800,000. Johnson bet $100,000 and was dealt two eights, which he split. Surprisingly, another two eights came, and he split again, wagering a total of $400,000. He was then dealt a three, a two, another three, and another two on the four hands, allowing him to double down on each hand. He was now wagering a total of $800,000. The dealer busted and Johnson ended up winning $800,000 in profit.[3]
Under these conditions Johnson was able to beat Tropicana out of nearly $6 million, Borgata out of $5 million, and Caesars out of $4 million. His total profits neared $15.1 million and seriously hurt casino profits. Though not banned from Tropicana and Borgata, the two casinos stopped Johnson from playing under those conditions and limits, while Caesars effectively banned him from playing.[3]
References[edit]
- ^Donald Wittkowski (May 23, 2011). 'Meet the blackjack player who beat the Trop for $6 million, Borgata for $5 million and Caesars for $4 million'. Press of Atlantic City.
- ^Alan Farnham and Susanna Kim (March 21, 2012). 'Blackjack Player Who Won $15 Million From 3 Casinos Reveals How'. ABC News. Retrieved March 4, 2014.
- ^ abcBowden, Mark (February 27, 2012). 'The Man Who Broke Atlantic City'. The Atlantic.
- ^'This Man Won $15M at Blackjack, How Did He Do It?'. Bloomberg. January 21, 2014.
- ^'Don Johnson #2: How He Beat Blackjack'. AP Heat. March 8, 2013.
Thread Rating:
Atlantic City and he attributed his success to negotiating favorable terms with those
casinos, terms that he believes gave him a player's edge. He faults the casinos for
accepting his terms without doing the math.
For the game itself he negotiated the dealer standing on a soft 17, a maximum bet of $25,000
to $100,000, no restrictions on doubling down, and resplitting for up to four hands. Best of
all, he negotiated a 20% rebate on any loss he incurred in a single day for a loss of
$500,000 or more.
Apart from the effect of the rebate, he calculated that the game had a house edge of 0.253%.
Casino management probably thought that the house still had the advantage and would merely
be giving up a percentage of their profit. Proper analysis would have shown that this rebate
would shift the odds in Don's favor.
The house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet, For an
average win or loss of one betting unit it can be converted to the probability of winning by
p = (1 - He)/2. We will need this for what follows.
For an He of 0.00253, p = 0.498735 and the probability of losing is q = 0.501265. We shall
use this to calculate Don's expected winnings taking into account the loss rebate.
At what point should he have decided to quit for the day? A loss of $500,000 would be a good
quitting point because playing further would involve the risk either of increasing the loss
or decreasing it and losing the rebate.
The optimal quitting point for a win can be calculated using the gambler's ruin formula for
an unfair game. For a house advantage of 0.00253 p = 0.49873, q = 0.501265 and
r = q/p = 1.00508291.
The probability of winning n units before losing 5 units is
w = (1 - r^5)/(1 - r^(n + 5)).
The player is betting on winning n units with probability w against losing 4 units, taking
into account the rebate, with a probability 1 - w and the player's expectation is
nw - 4(1- w)
This has a maximum of 0.57093 betting units at n = 15 so the player should
stop if he reaches a win of 1,500,000. and his expected average return per day is $57,093.
Teliot has done a similar calculation using simulation and has gotten comparable, though not
identical results.
The strategy works because the house edge in properly played blackjack is small and r is
very close to 1. At r = 1.1 the strategy is unprofitable for all stopping points. This
corresponds to a house advantage of 4.76%. It follows that this strategy is useful only for
blackjack and baccarat and that the house may safely offer this rebate for slots or roulette
without fear of being taken advantage of.
Calculations were done using Derive 6. Maxima were found using calculus.
He also gave us this
A television actor: not the same person.
Teliot has done a similar calculation using simulation and has gotten comparable, though not
identical results.
http://apheat.net/2013/07/02/the-loss-rebate-theorem/
Here are the results of this theorem, when applied to Don Johnson with a $100,000 wager and 20% rebate:
Here is the full theorem:
In my book, he manipulated casino managers to give him an edge on the game. That makes him a cheater, not an AP. Same goes for Ivey.
Manipulate? Sure, if you accept the definition of 'to use or change (numbers, information, etc.) in a skillful way or for a particular purpose'. But that's a far cry from 'cheating'!?!?
People in all industry's negotiate deals every day, some are to their advantage and other that are not. This is no different, in both cases the individuals who negotiated and agreed to terms with Johnson and then with Ivey just made bad deals.
Here are the results of this theorem, when applied to Don Johnson with a $100,000 wager and 20% rebate:
Thank you for your attention; I think this is a very worthwhile topic. As I read your image, the loss exit point is $2,600,000, the win exit point is $2,400,000, and the expected win is $124,999.
The result of your simulation is that the loss exit point should be $500,000. the win exit point should be $1,600,000, and the expected win is $61,876.
The result of my calculation, which does not take into account the standard deviation of the game, is that the loss exit point should be $500,000, the win exit point should be $1,500,000 and that the expected win is $57,093. This is in pretty good agreement with your simulation but not with your calculation.
I think the idea of using a formula is a good one. I was able to find the optimal quitting point for a gain merely by differentiating the expression for the player's expectation, setting to zero, and solving. Derive and other computer algebra systems can do such things quickly and accurately. Simulation takes time and the error is not always easy to estimate.
In my book, he manipulated casino managers to give him an edge on the game. That makes him a cheater, not an AP. Same goes for Ivey.
A cheater?? He negitoiated a deal, caino accepted it, how is that cheating? Same with Ivey, casio didn't mind turning the cards, after all he was losing, is it only okay to do things while the player is losing and not while they are winning? Ever exprienced dealer trying to upset players, either through fast dealing, section spinning, they don't always offer a fair game despite the HE, you reall do sound jealous.The result of your simulation is that the loss exit point should be $250,000. the win exit point should be $1,600,000, and the expected win is $61,876.
Don Johnson Gambler Strategy
False. See this post:Don Johnson Blackjack Net Worth
http://apheat.net/2013/05/03/don-johnson-3-could-he-have-won-more/
Don Johnson Blackjack Documentary
My simulation gave a quit loss of 2,750,000 and a quit win of 2,200,000 and an average win of $125,209.
Don Johnson Blackjack Documentary
The result of my calculation, which does not take into account the standard deviation of the game, is that the loss exit point should be $250,000, the win exit point should be $1,500,000 and that the expected win is $57,093. This is in pretty good agreement with your simulation but not with your calculation.
Don Johnson Blackjack Strategy
Your method gives incorrect results. You misquote my results. The standard deviation is everything. You are using the wrong house edge.
Don Johnson Blackjack Player
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